Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (1.09) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.69x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 2.70.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-3 (7.4%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
18%
5.46
19%
5.21
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.4%
Away win
1 – 1
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
4.18
2.70
Fenerbahçe xG
5.46
18%
Home win
5.21
19%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
7%
14.88
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
1%
81.22
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 2.70 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 4.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.