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Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Beşiktaş.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Beşiktaş 0-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Başakşehir 1.25 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Başakşehir attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 50% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 26%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 46%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Başakşehir's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG, Başakşehir 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights