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Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Beşiktaş beat Adana Demirspor 4-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.84 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.64, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 74% | Draw 14% | Adana Demirspor 11%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Adana Demirspor 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Beşiktaş's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights