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Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Başakşehir 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Başakşehir 3-4 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 0.96 xG and Trabzonspor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Trabzonspor attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 27% | Draw 35% | Trabzonspor 38%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Trabzonspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.40 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights