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Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Samsunspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Samsunspor 3-0 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.22 xG and Samsunspor 1.19 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against Samsunspor attack 1.20 / defence 1.17, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 58% | Draw 25% | Samsunspor 17%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 59%, Samsunspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Samsunspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.54 PPG, Samsunspor 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights