🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Başakşehir and Rizespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir and Rizespor finished level at 2-2 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.92 xG and Rizespor 1.29 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.27 / defence 1.01 against Rizespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 49% | Draw 28% | Rizespor 23%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 56%, Rizespor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Rizespor's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.51 PPG, Rizespor 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights