Başakşehir vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Başakşehir (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Başakşehir face Konyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Konyaspor travel to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 March 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Başakşehir carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Başakşehir, 3 for Konyaspor and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 55% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 62% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.71 xG and Konyaspor 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.236 / defence 0.912 | Konyaspor attack 0.777 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Data: 42 Başakşehir games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 58% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Başakşehir 1.71 / Konyaspor 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.236 / def 0.912 | Konyaspor attack 0.777 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Konyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Konyaspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 March 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 58% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Başakşehir and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Başakşehir 5W | Draws 2 | Konyaspor 3W.
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.21
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.54
0.83
Konyaspor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
30.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.83 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 19W 11D 12L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor's form line: 11W 12D 19L from 42 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Konyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.12 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Konyaspor away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.86 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Başakşehir
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Konyaspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 57%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Başakşehir) and 57% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Başakşehir's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Başakşehir's matches and 57% of Konyaspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.