Başakşehir vs Hatayspor – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.22x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.41
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.08
1.01
Hatayspor xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
47.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.01 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.