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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe finished level at 1-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.24 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.31 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fenerbahçe landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.51 / defence 0.92, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 17% | Draw 23% | Fenerbahçe 59%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 56%, Fenerbahçe 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights