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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Fatih Karagümrük 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.21 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.84 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.27 / defence 0.99 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 53/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 66% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 10%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 47%, Fatih Karagümrük 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights