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Stalemate at Başakşehir's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Başakşehir and Eyüpspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.42 xG and Eyüpspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Eyüpspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 41% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 32%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 57%, Eyüpspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.49 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights