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Shock result as Bodrum FK defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bodrum FK beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.36 xG and Bodrum FK 0.63 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Bodrum FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 75% | Draw 18% | Bodrum FK 7%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Bodrum FK 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Bodrum FK's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Bodrum FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights