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Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Adana Demirspor beat Başakşehir 2-3 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.60 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.18 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.66, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 68% | Draw 17% | Adana Demirspor 15%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Adana Demirspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 49%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Başakşehir's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Adana Demirspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights