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Trabzonspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and Trabzonspor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Trabzonspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 26%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Trabzonspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 51%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.27 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights