🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Galatasaray run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Galatasaray beat Antalyaspor 1-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 0.85 xG and Galatasaray 2.24 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Galatasaray outscored their 2.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.49 against Galatasaray attack 1.17 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 10% | Draw 23% | Galatasaray 66%, with Galatasaray to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Galatasaray 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Galatasaray's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Galatasaray arrived the stronger side — 2.57 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Galatasaray (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights