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Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Antalyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.03 xG and Göztepe 1.85 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 1.48 against Göztepe attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 55%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Göztepe 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Göztepe's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.18 PPG, Göztepe 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights