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Poisson model favours Göztepe (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Antalyaspor face Göztepe.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Göztepe travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Antalyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Göztepe — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Göztepe away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. Göztepe's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Antalyaspor's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 2 for Göztepe and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Göztepe winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Antalyaspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Göztepe trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Göztepe 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 55% | Göztepe 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.03 xG and Göztepe 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.894 / defence 1.476 | Göztepe attack 0.921 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.361. Data: 49 Antalyaspor games / 49 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 19% | Draw 26% | Göztepe 55%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Göztepe 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Göztepe (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Göztepe 50% BTTS from recent games.

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