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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 24, as Antalyaspor and Fenerbahçe drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.28 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.54 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.28 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.60 / defence 0.88, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 16% | Draw 22% | Fenerbahçe 62%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights