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Dominant Antalyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eyüpspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor beat Eyüpspor 3-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.53 xG and Eyüpspor 1.38 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eyüpspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.44 against Eyüpspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Eyüpspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.10 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights