🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Eyüpspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 April 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Antalyaspor at Corendon Airlines Park this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 0.90 (Eyüpspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 2 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Antalyaspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Eyüpspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Eyüpspor 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.53 xG and Eyüpspor 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.057 / defence 1.438 | Eyüpspor attack 0.815 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.173. Data: 63 Antalyaspor games / 63 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 39% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Eyüpspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 90% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights