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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Eyüpspor run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eyüpspor beat Antalyaspor 1-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.55 xG and Eyüpspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Eyüpspor outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Eyüpspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 53%, Eyüpspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Eyüpspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights