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Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Antalyaspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Başakşehir beat Antalyaspor 0-4 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.18 xG and Başakşehir 1.36 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Başakşehir outscored their 1.36 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against Başakşehir attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 30% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 38%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 56%, Başakşehir 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.20 PPG, Başakşehir 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights