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Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.88 xG and Başakşehir 1.63 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Başakşehir attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights