🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 1.44 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 34% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Antalyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Alanyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.07 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights