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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Antalyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Alanyaspor have managed just 1 wins.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Antalyaspor a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Alanyaspor 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.967 / defence 1.336 | Alanyaspor attack 0.952 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Data: 67 Antalyaspor games / 67 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 34% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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