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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.31 xG and Trabzonspor 1.55 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Trabzonspor attack 1.36 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 45%, Trabzonspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Trabzonspor's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights