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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 49%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 15 as Alanyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Alanya Oba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Samsunspor — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Samsunspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Samsunspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Samsunspor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Samsunspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 47% | Samsunspor 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.81 xG and Samsunspor 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.047 / defence 1.035 | Samsunspor attack 1.053 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.143. Data: 34 Alanyaspor games / 34 Samsunspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 4.17. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Samsunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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