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Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Samsunspor beat Alanyaspor 2-3 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.73 xG and Samsunspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Samsunspor outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 0.96 against Samsunspor attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 29% | Samsunspor 23%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Samsunspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Samsunspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Samsunspor's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights