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Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor and Rizespor finished level at 0-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.55 xG and Rizespor 1.20 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Rizespor attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 25% | Rizespor 29%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Rizespor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rizespor's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights