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Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.41 xG and Konyaspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.19 PPG, Konyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights