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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.49 xG and Konyaspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Konyaspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 22%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Konyaspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Konyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG, Konyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights