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Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Kocaelispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Kocaelispor 5-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.08 xG and Kocaelispor 0.90 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kocaelispor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Kocaelispor attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Kocaelispor 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kocaelispor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.08 PPG, Kocaelispor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights