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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kayserispor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Kayserispor 3-1 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.70 xG and Kayserispor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Kayserispor attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 14%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Kayserispor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Kayserispor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.16 PPG, Kayserispor 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights