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Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kasımpaşa beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.21 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.71 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.62 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.88 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 46% | Draw 35% | Kasımpaşa 19%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Kasımpaşa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Kasımpaşa 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Kasımpaşa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.25 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights