Alanyaspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 37 as Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Alanyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Gaziantep FK trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 61% versus Gaziantep FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 58% | Gaziantep FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.17 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.179 / defence 1.436 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.717 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.344. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Alanyaspor games / 36 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Gaziantep FK 4.35. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 80% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Alanyaspor 2.17 / Gaziantep FK 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.179 / def 1.436 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.717 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Gaziantep FK xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 3 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 54% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
54%
1.86
24%
4.24
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.55
1.38
Gaziantep FK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
11%
8.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
3%
38.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.38 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 36 games, going 17W 7D 12L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.19 PPG from 36 outings (11W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 8W 4D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.33 points per game from 18 outings (1W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Gaziantep FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 17W 7D 12L in their last 36 games (1.61 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 67%, Gaziantep FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Alanyaspor) and 56% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Alanyaspor's games and 50% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Alanyaspor's matches and 56% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.17 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.38 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.18 / defence 1.44 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.53, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 54% | Draw 24% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 58%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.