Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.97
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.31
Gaziantep FK xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.31 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.