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Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.26 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.63 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.76 / defence 0.70 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 31%, Fatih Karagümrük 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.56. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights