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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Match Analysis

Alanyaspor host Fatih Karagümrük at GAİN Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 December 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Alanyaspor — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 1W 1D 5L from 7 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 0.90 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Alanyaspor hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Fatih Karagümrük, with 3 draws in between.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Fatih Karagümrük 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alanyaspor 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.26 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.758 / defence 0.701 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.686 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.309. Alanyaspor's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Alanyaspor games / 16 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 48% | Draw 37% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.08 | Draw 2.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 57% BTTS from recent games.

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