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Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beşiktaş.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 2-0 at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.01 xG and Beşiktaş 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Beşiktaş attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 31% | Draw 32% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights