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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Beşiktaş 1.17 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 0.66, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 30% | Draw 29% | Beşiktaş 41%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 48%, Beşiktaş 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Beşiktaş's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.27 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights