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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Başakşehir 5-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Başakşehir 5-4 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.57 xG and Başakşehir 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.90 against Başakşehir attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 21%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 47%, Başakşehir 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Başakşehir's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights