Alanyaspor 0-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Adana Demirspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Adana Demirspor's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Alanyaspor, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 60% versus Adana Demirspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 58% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.64 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.109 / defence 1.016 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.316 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.354. Adana Demirspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Alanyaspor games / 50 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.86 | Draw 4.55 | Adana Demirspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Alanyaspor 1.64 / Adana Demirspor 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.109 / def 1.016 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.316 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Adana Demirspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 35% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
35%
2.84
22%
4.46
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.45
1.81
Adana Demirspor xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.81 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 11D 17L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.56 PPG from 50 outings (21W 15D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.54 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 6D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.36 points per game from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.68 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 21W 15D 14L in their last 50 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.68 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Adana Demirspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Alanyaspor and 64% for Adana Demirspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Alanyaspor's games and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Alanyaspor's matches and 64% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, as Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.64 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.81 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.32 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 22% | Adana Demirspor 42%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 58%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.54 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.