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Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Adana Demirspor 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alanyaspor beat Adana Demirspor 3-2 at GAIN Park Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.94 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.23 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.13 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 53% | Draw 23% | Adana Demirspor 24%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 46%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alanyaspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights