Adana Demirspor 3-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Trabzonspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 12 September 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Adana Demirspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Trabzonspor's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Adana Demirspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Adana Demirspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 54% versus Trabzonspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Trabzonspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.86 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.182 / defence 0.767 | Trabzonspor attack 1.100 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.222. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Adana Demirspor games / 43 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 57% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 57% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.86 / Trabzonspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.182 / def 0.767 | Trabzonspor attack 1.100 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 57% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Adana Demirspor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 1.18x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.44
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.89
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
3%
31.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.03 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 18W 11D 14L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor's form line: 26W 13D 4L from 43 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Trabzonspor are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.81 PPG from 21 outings (11W 5D 5L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 12W 5D 4L from 21 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.74 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 63%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 26W 13D 4L in their last 43 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.81 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 43%, Trabzonspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Adana Demirspor) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 62% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Trabzonspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Trabzonspor 3-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.86 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.77 against Trabzonspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 57% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 21%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Trabzonspor 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.51. Form was overturned, with Adana Demirspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.