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Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kayserispor beat Adana Demirspor 0-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.28 xG and Kayserispor 1.27 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.37 against Kayserispor attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 36% | Draw 28% | Kayserispor 36%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Kayserispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Kayserispor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kayserispor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 0.83 PPG, Kayserispor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights