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Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Adana Demirspor 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Göztepe beat Adana Demirspor 1-2 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.04 xG and Göztepe 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.61 / defence 1.32 against Göztepe attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 31% | Draw 28% | Göztepe 41%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Göztepe 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Göztepe's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.32. Form held, and they took the win. Göztepe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights