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Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Adana Demirspor.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fenerbahçe beat Adana Demirspor 0-4 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.00 xG and Fenerbahçe 2.40 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 2.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.34 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.52 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 12% | Draw 21% | Fenerbahçe 67%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 59%, Fenerbahçe 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Adana Demirspor's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fenerbahçe's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights