Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Uthai Thani face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi meet at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ratchaburi arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Ratchaburi have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Uthai Thani's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Ratchaburi winning.
It is worth noting that Ratchaburi have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 64% and Ratchaburi 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.28 xG and Ratchaburi 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.996 / defence 1.070 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.222. Data: 33 Uthai Thani games / 33 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 38%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Uthai Thani 1.28 / Ratchaburi 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.996 / def 1.070 | Ratchaburi attack 1.019 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ratchaburi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 36% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 4W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.02x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.81
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.62
1.33
Ratchaburi xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
10%
9.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.33 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 10D 14L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.91 PPG from 33 outings (19W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Uthai Thani's home form reads 5W 5D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 1.81 points per game from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.76 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 6D 8L in their last 33 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.25 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Uthai Thani, 69% for Ratchaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 62% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 69% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Uthai Thani's matches and 62% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.