Uthai Thani vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Prachuap travel to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to take on Uthai Thani. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Prachuap are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Uthai Thani have won 3, Prachuap 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Uthai Thani trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Prachuap trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 64% versus Prachuap 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Prachuap 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.17 xG and Prachuap 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.997 / defence 1.069 | Prachuap attack 1.047 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.222. Data: 33 Uthai Thani games / 33 Prachuap games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 32% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 41%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Prachuap 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 50% | Prachuap 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 32% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Uthai Thani 1.17 / Prachuap 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.997 / def 1.069 | Prachuap attack 1.047 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Prachuap xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap part of?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 32% chance of winning, Prachuap a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Uthai Thani and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Record (6 meetings): Uthai Thani 3W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.00x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.76
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.54
1.37
Prachuap xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.37 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap's form line: 13W 12D 8L from 33 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Prachuap are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Uthai Thani.
Venue Form
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 6D 6L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.30 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 13W 12D 8L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Prachuap away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.25 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Prachuap in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Prachuap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 62%, Prachuap 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 50% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 50% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 50% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Prachuap tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.