Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 2D 3L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Uthai Thani, 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Uthai Thani 2W, Lamphun Warrior 1W, 4D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 4–1 with Uthai Thani winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 64% and Lamphun Warrior 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 52% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.32 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.997 / defence 1.068 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.905 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.222. Data: 33 Uthai Thani games / 33 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 40% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 33%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 40% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Uthai Thani 1.32 / Lamphun Warrior 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.997 / def 1.068 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.905 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Lamphun Warrior xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 May 2027 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 40% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (7 meetings): Uthai Thani 2W | Draws 4 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.91x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.72
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.50
1.18
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
9%
11.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.18 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 9W 10D 14L from 33 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 4W 18D 11L across 33 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Uthai Thani against 0.91 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 5W 5D 6L from 16 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 8D 6L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.15 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 70%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 18D 11L in their last 33 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.25 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Uthai Thani won 1-4 on 6 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
From 7 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-4 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 62%, Lamphun Warrior 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Uthai Thani) and 38% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Uthai Thani's games and 62% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 38% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.